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Usha Martin Ltd. (USHBEL)
By Pankaj Pandey, Goutam Chakraborty, Abhisar Jain

Wire power…

Usha Martin (UML) is an integrated, specialty steel maker with a niche product mix comprising steel wire rods, wires, ropes and strands. The company is nearing completion of its Rs 2100-crore capex programme. This is expected to take its steelmaking capacity to 0.7 MT by FY10E end. The company enjoys the benefits of complete backward and forward integration and maintains its value-added product share above 50% in its overall product mix, which leads to healthy margins in both up and down cycles. We expect earnings CAGR of 24.9% over FY09-11E.

  • Presence in niche value-added product segment

The company has a presence in the niche segment of value-added products like wires, wire ropes and strands where product realisations and EBITDA per tonne are very robust. The company realised an EBITDA/tonne of ~Rs 12000/tonne in Q2FY10. This is expected to improve further towards ~Rs 15000/tonne, going forward.

  • Capex programme nearing completion

UML’s Rs 2100-crore capex programme is nearing completion. This, in turn, would increase its rolled steel making capacity to 7 lakh tonne by the end of FY10E and to 1 million tonne by the end of FY11E. Also, the company aims to maintain product and market diversification with value-added steel share of >50% on the expanded capacity together with complete backward integration.

  • Sales volume back on track, improvements to continue

UML reported higher consolidated sales volume of ~91,300 tonne in Q2FY10E, up ~18% QoQ, aided by higher volumes from the wire rods and wire ropes segment. We expect sales volumes to keep improving on a sequential basis and reach a total of ~120,000 tonne per quarter by Q4FY10E, which would result in higher earnings.  

 
  Quarter ended Year ended Rs. cr
year   2010/06 2009/06 var %   2010/03 2009/03 var %
Sales Income   550.21 436.95 -874.08   1,861.66 2,316.64 -19.64
Other Income   0.40 2.66 -84.96   8.89 4.10 116.83
Expenditure   429.79 364.04 18.06   1,511.06 1,898.31 -20.40
Interest   36.22 25.90 39.85   113.03 123.35 -8.37
Gross Profit   84.60 49.67 70.32   246.46 299.08 -17.59
Depreciation   40.79 23.92 70.53   107.25 85.04 26.12
Tax   13.38 12.35 8.34   47.00 67.48 -30.35
PAT   30.43 13.40 127.09   92.21 146.56 -37.08
Equity   30.54 25.09 21.72   30.54 25.09 21.72
OPM (%)   21.89 16.69 5.20   18.83 18.06 0.77
GPM (%)   15.30 10.76 4.54   12.76 12.73 0.03
NPM (%)   5.53 3.06 2.47   4.95 6.32 -1.37
 
Key Financial Ratios
  2009/03 2008/03 2007/03 2006/03 2005/03
EPS 5.86 5.79 21.20 14.68 11.04
CEPS 9.30 8.89 37.58 32.43 30.78
Book Value 49.21 40.61 34.59 149.91 131.69
Dividend/Share 1.00 1.00 3.75 2.75 1.50
OPM 23.21 19.63 19.51 20.70 19.02
RONW 21.58 13.34 12.33 11.96 12.61
Debt/Equity 1.44 1.09 1.04 1.18 1.83
Ratio 0.96 1.21 1.19 1.29 1.40
Interest Cover 3.81 3.85 3.63 3.23 2.75
 
Financials:

Valuation

At the CMP of Rs 85.9, the stock is trading at attractive valuations of FY11E PE of 7.5x and FY11E EV/EBITDA of 5.2x. With significant volume and sales growth expected in FY11, we expect an upward re-rating of the stock. We recommend Usha Martin as our Pick of the Week with a potential upside of 10% from current levels.
 
technical analysis
 

Technical Outlook

The stock continued to be in an uptrend since mid-March 2009. Further, the stock has broken out of a consolidation in the range of Rs 82-68. This offers an upside of Rs 96 in the short-term. Further, volumes have picked up during the break out, which suggests increased participation. Rising moving averages and 14-period RSI support bullish momentum.

Earlier, the stock had corrected from its January 2008 high of 133.50 and made a good base around the 18-20 area. Then, from mid-March 2009 it started its uptrend coupled with good volumes.

 
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